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EMCDC - Study on the Continuous Population Census Modality

About - Pilot Test

A pilot test was planned to evaluate the adequacy of the use of an alternative census modality to the complete enumeration of the population in Brazil. The test was designed to enable the evaluation and adequacy of the methods to be used to obtain results under this modality and to allow the assessment of operational issues. To evaluate the impact of the modality change, the results of the pilot test will be compared with the results of the 2010 Census.

The pilot test had a five-year cumulative cycle, set around the year 2010, to enable the comparison of the data accumulated in the middle of the cycle with data from the 2010 Census. The first collection was carried out in 2008 and the last collection of the cycle ended this year, 2012.

The test was carried out in the municipalities of Paraíba (MG), Porto Real (RJ), Formigueiro (RS) and Santana do Livramento (RS). Table 1, below, shows the number of enumeration areas per year of collection and the sampling fraction of households for the municipalities of the test. 

Table 1 - Number of Enumeration Areas per year of collection and sampling fraction of households, according to the municipalities of the test

Municipalities Enumeration Areas by year of collection (base 2010) Sampling Fraction
Total 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Além Paraíba - MG 59 12 11 14 9 13 10%
Porto Real - RJ 22 4 4 4 5 5 20%
Formigueiro - RS 13 3 3 2 2 3 33%
Santana do Livramento - RS 216 41 45 41 45 44 10%

 

Year 1 (2008)

The collection started in November 2008 and had an average length of 30 days. The content of the questionnaire was the same as the Questionnaire Sample 1 used in the First Pilot Test of the 2010 Population Census, the most up-to-date version at the time of the test. PDAs were used and the interviews were carried out as the units were registered, so the register for the selection of the households where the questionnaires were applied was made or updated during the canvassing of the sector. A systematic selection scheme was adopted.

Year 2 (2009)

The collection was carried out in the months of November and December of 2009 and had an average length of 30 days. The content of the questionnaire was the same used in the Experimental Census, the most up-to-date version at the time of the test. PDAs were used and the interviews were carried out as the units were registered, so the register for the selection of the househods where the questionnaires were applied was made or updated during the canvassing of the sector. A random selection scheme was adopted. 

Year 3 (2010) 

The data that will make up the sample of the third year will be extracted from the 2010 Census collection, so the strategies applied to the 2010 Census must be considered, as well as the questionnaire used in the operation. 

Year 4 (2011) 

The collection started in October and ended in November 2011 and had an average length of 30 days. The content of the questionnaire was the same as that used in the 2010 Population Census. PDAs were used, but the interviews were not conducted as the units were registered. The register for the selection of the households where the questionnaires were applied was built in a previous operation, carried out in October 2011. A random selection scheme was adopted.

Year 5 (2012) 

The collection started in September and ended in October, lasting an average of 30 days. The content of the questionnaire was the same as that of the 2010 Population Census. PDAs were used, whose app automatically and randomly selected the sample.

Description

The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics – IBGE plays the important role of providing Brazil with information that can portray its reality for the exercise of citizenship. This includes the responsibility of carrying out population census. Today the IBGE, as the other Statistical Institutes of several countries all over the world, finds itself in the middle of a dilemma: to produce more and better information in the midst of budget restrictions and urgency of results.

Aiming at improving its work methodology concerning the planning and execution of the population censuses, the IBGE makes an effort to examine and assess methods other than full enumeration of the population, especially those based on samples which are already being adopted in the United States and France.

The project Study on the Continuous Population Census Modality – EMCDC is grounded on the current international discussion on the use of such methods due to the challenge that the National Statistical Offices face to produce updated, geographically and thematically detailed information, with the constant necessity of cost reduction. Knowing that it also must cope with such hindrances, the IBGE has started some activities to foster the study and the assessment of alternative methodologies for the population census in the Brazilian context.

With activities initiated in 2004, the project has been welcoming actions that help evaluate the technical and operational viability of the methodological change. Of note are the three international seminars carried out in partnership with the Instituto Nacional de Estadística Geografía e Informática (INEGI - Mexico), the participations in international symposiums and international meetings on alternative census modalities, including technical visits to the National Institute INSEE (France), besides the participation in the debate on the future of the Brazilian population census in activities at the national level, as CONFEST/CONFEG and ABEP, among others.

Taking part in those activities has helped foster the debate on the subject in the Institute and, in 2004 and 2005, multidisciplinary work groups (WT) with technicians from the several IBGE organizational units were engaged in the project development. Five work groups were created and later defined to encompass the different dimensions of the work, given the project’s complexity:

  • WG Census Mapping and Address Register;
  • WG Conceptual Design;
  • WG Information Sampling, Estimation and Accumulation;
  • WG Distribution of Agencies;
  • WG Integration between Censuses and Surveys.

Based on the knowledge produced in the different thematic groups a proposal was elaborated for the operational model. It established guidelines for the carrying out of the Pilot Test of the Continuous Census. The test was carried out in the period between 2008 and 2013 and comprises two cumulative cycles: 2008-2012 e 2009-2013.

The preliminary results of the study may be seen in the articles: Study on the Continuous Population Census Modality, presented in the XVIII National Meeting of Population Studies and in the  20th National Symposium on Probability and Statistics; and Rolling Census: scoping study for Brazil, presented in the 59th World Statistics Congress.

The studies must be concluded by the end of 2014, when the implementation limits and possibilities for the Continuous Census Modality in Brazil will be presented.fico Contínuo no Brasil.

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